When to Hit in Blackjack?
Table Of Content
Step up your Blackjack game by mastering the art of hitting—one of the most pivotal moves you can make at the table. Timing is everything: press your luck too eagerly, and you risk busting; play it too safe, and you miss opportunities to turn the tide. By considering both your total and the dealer’s upcard, you’ll strike the perfect balance between caution and aggression. Embrace the math, trust a solid strategy chart, and watch your bankroll grow steadily rather than shrink away.
Knowing when to hit in blackjack is one of the most important skills a player can develop. Drawing another card at the right time can mean the difference between winning consistently and bleeding chips away. Below, I’ll outline when to hit, why timing matters, and the common errors players (myself included) often stumble into—sometimes by ignoring that all-important dealer upcard.
Why “When to Hit” Is Crucial?
Hitting means asking the dealer for an additional card to improve your total. It’s a basic blackjack action, yet it’s also a key driver of results. If you choose poorly (like hitting a borderline hand when the dealer’s in a weak spot), you might bust unnecessarily. If you skip hitting when the math says it’s correct, you might miss out on winning scenarios.
(I recall early sessions where I panicked at totals like 14, refusing to hit because I feared busting. Over time, I realized that standing with 14 vs. a dealer 10 was often riskier than just drawing that extra card.)
Significance of Timing
A well-timed hit can minimize your losses and capitalize on favorable conditions. A poorly timed one can do the opposite, leaving you to watch the dealer flip a big card and wonder why you didn’t stand or double down instead.
(Relating to “When to double down”: Some borderline hit-or-stand hands might actually be a perfect candidate for doubling down if conditions are right.)
Connection to Other Moves
Hitting is part of the bigger puzzle. Sometimes you might stand, sometimes you might surrender, sometimes you might split. All these choices complement each other, forming the core of your blackjack strategy.
The Basics: House Edge & Why Hitting Right Matters
Keeping the House Edge Low
A well-calibrated hitting strategy (as outlined by most basic strategy charts) is essential to maintaining blackjack’s low house edge—often around 0.5% if you play optimally. Deviating from that strategy, such as hitting or standing “by feeling,” typically raises the edge back in the casino’s favor.
Long-Term Impact
Yes, a random hit might save you in a single hand. But repeating bad hit decisions out of superstition or frustration will cost you over hundreds of hands. Trusting the math and ignoring the urge to do something impulsive is what helps you remain profitable (or at least lose slower).
(Cross-reference “when-to/stand” or “when-to/double-down” for more complete coverage of other key decisions.)
General Guidelines for Hitting
Hard Totals
- 4–11: Always hit. You can’t bust, so why not improve your total?
- 12–16: This is the trickiest range—your “danger zone.” Depending on the dealer’s card, you may need to hit or stand:
- If dealer shows 7–Ace: Typically safer to hit, as the dealer is strong.
- If dealer shows 2–6: Often you might stand, hoping the dealer will bust.
(I’ve seen many new players freeze at a hard 15 or 16, refusing to hit even when the dealer’s got a 10. The data shows hitting is more favorable in that scenario, even if it feels scary.)
Soft Totals (Hands with an Ace)
- Soft 13–15 (A–2, A–3, etc.): Usually keep hitting unless the dealer is showing a weak card, in which case you might consider other moves.
- Soft 17–18 (A–6, A–7): These can be stand/hit/double scenarios depending on the dealer upcard. Many basic strategy charts advocate hitting A–7 vs. a dealer 9, 10, or Ace.
Dealer Upcard Influence
The dealer’s visible card is your biggest clue. A 2–6 suggests they might bust, so you can be more conservative with hitting. A 7–Ace is stronger, so you might need to be more aggressive, hitting to improve your chances.
Tying Hitting Decisions to Basic Strategy Charts
Reference to Strategy Charts
A basic strategy chart provides an at-a-glance guide for every hand total vs. every dealer upcard. It shows whether you should hit, stand, double, or split.
Key “Hit” Spots
- Hard 11 or Lower: Always safe to hit. You can’t bust on a single card.
- Soft Totals: Typically, you hit soft 13–15, unless there’s a compelling reason to double.
Nuances With Deck Numbers or Rules
Single-deck vs. multi-deck: A slight shift in some borderline decisions. H17 (dealer hits soft 17) vs. S17 (dealer stands soft 17) can also nudge you to be more or less aggressive with hitting.
Common Mistakes & Pitfalls
Emotional or Impulsive Hitting
Players sometimes “just go for it” if they’re on a losing streak or angry at the dealer. That can lead to illogical hits on totals where they should stand.
(I used to think, “Well, nothing’s going right—I’ll just keep hitting until I bust or get a miracle.” Not a solid plan.)
Fear of Busting
Another biggie is standing on totals like 14, 15, or 16 vs. a dealer 10 out of bust fear. While it might feel safe in the moment, over the long run, basic strategy says hitting gives a slightly better EV in these tough spots.
Ignoring Dealer’s Upcard
No matter your total, always factor in whether the dealer’s card is weak (2–6) or strong (7–Ace). This is the essence of blackjack’s strategic advantage for the player.
Mismanaging Soft Hands
A–6 might look like 17, but it’s actually “soft 17” with room to draw without busting. Many players stand too early, missing the chance to improve or even double.
Special Situations & House Rules
Single Deck or Double Deck
If you’re counting cards or paying attention to the shoe size, that can slightly adjust your hitting decisions. For example, if the count is extremely favorable, you might stand on borderline totals more often.
Card Counting
If you track the ratio of high to low cards remaining, you might deviate from standard hitting strategy. A high count can push you to stand on totals you’d normally hit, while a low count might encourage more hitting.
European Rules (No-Hole-Card)
In some variants, the dealer doesn’t take a hole card until players have acted. This doesn’t drastically change your hitting approach, but the house edge is a bit different, so some borderline hits might shift.
Practical Examples & Math Breakdown
Example #1: Hard 12 vs. Dealer 3
It feels odd to hit a 12—busting is only four points away—but strategy often suggests hitting here because the dealer’s 3 still isn’t that weak, and your chance to improve is worth the risk.
Example #2: Soft 18 vs. Dealer 9
Many players see 18 and freeze. But a soft 18 can still improve or be turned into a better total, especially if the dealer’s card is strong.
(Walk readers through a short EV comparison to illustrate how the math supports these moves.)
FAQ
1. Should I hit 16 vs. a dealer 10?
Usually, yes. It’s painful, but hitting yields a slightly better EV than standing, even though bust risk is high.
2. Do I keep hitting soft hands until I get at least 17?
Typically yes, unless there’s an opportunity to double or the dealer’s upcard suggests a different move.
3. Are there times I shouldn’t hit totals under 12?
Rarely. You generally want to keep drawing if you can’t bust on the next card, unless splitting or doubling is more beneficial.
