Blackjack Odds: Rules, Strategies and Outcomes

Blackjack combines skill and chance, allowing players to influence the house edge through smart decisions. By learning basic strategy, choosing favorable rules, and using disciplined bankroll management, you can minimize risk and maximize enjoyment. While short-term swings may be unpredictable, a deeper understanding of odds and strategy can foster more consistent results.

Blackjack is one of the most prevalent casino games in the world. What appeals to many is its combination of skill and chance, and both can have a big impact in each individual hand. Unlike most casino games, in blackjack, players have an opportunity to impact the edge of the house through wise decision-making. By having an awareness of odds involved—ranging from the chance of getting a specific hand to math edge of the house—you can make smarter choices at the table. In the following, we explore key areas of blackjack odds, beginning with basic rules and general variants and moving through to complex techniques such as bankroll management and card counting. 

Rules of Blackjack 

Objective of the Game 

The objective in blackjack is to beat out the dealer with a value for your hand that’s higher than that of the dealer but not over 21. In case your hand is over 21, you “bust” and immediately lose at the round. 

Value of Cards 

• Numbered Cards (2–10): Value is face value. 

• Face Cards (Queen, Jack, King): All worth 10. 

• Ace (A): Can represent 1 or 11, whatever will best serve your hand. 

Deal and Turn Sequence 

1. Every player is dealt two, face up. 
2. The dealer is dealt two, one face up (the “up-card”) and one face down (the “hole card”). 
3. Players make a decision (hit, stand, double down, split, or surrender when applicable). 
4. After all of the actions have been taken, the dealer discards and reveals the hole card and takes additional cards according to predetermined rules (in most cases, the dealer must draw until at least 17 is reached). 

Win Requirements 

• Blackjack (Natural 21): In case your two starting cards have a value of 21 (e.g., an Ace and a 10-value card), you will receive a 3:2 payout. 

• Nearer 21 than Dealer: In case neither you nor the dealer busts, whoever possesses a higher value wins. 

• Dealer Bust: In case the dealer busts (has a value over 21), all other hands win. 

A sound grasp of these fundamentals is critical, for each and every one of your decisions—hit, stand, double, or split—will rely on these underpinnings. 

House Edge and How It’s Computed 

The house edge is a mathmatical edge in a casino’s favor over a player in a long-term basis. In blackjack, such an edge can be relatively low in relation to most casino games, especially when proper strategy is utilized. There are a variety of factors that contribute to an edge in a casino’s direction: 

1. Number of Decks: In theory, single-deck games have less edge in a casino’s direction, but casinos make up for it with fewer player-favorable rules (e.g., 6:5 payouts for a blackjack, restricted doubling down). 
2. Dealer Rules: In case a dealer must draw when a player possesses a soft 17, odds tip in a player’s direction. 
3. Payouts: 3:2 payout for a natural blackjack is player-friendlier in relation to 6:5, even 1:1 payouts at many tables. 
4. Player Options: Rules for delayed surrender, re-splitting Aces, and double down following a split can make a casino’s edge less. 

Note: In a well-designed game, the edge for the house can float at approximately 0.5% when played with perfect strategy. Any additional player mistakes (or less player-favorable rule tweaks) can cause it to rise noticeably. To get more information, visit this page for the house edge.

Impact of Various Rule Variations 

Single-Deck vs. Multi-Deck 

• Single-Deck: Easier for specific advantage-play techniques such as card counting, overall preferable for a knowledgeable player when additional rules are player-favorable. 

• Multi-Deck: More difficult to count, but it’s more common in casinos. Usually, multi-deck games can have a little larger edge for the house unless counteracted with positive rules. 

Dealer’s Action with a Soft 17 

• H17 (Hit with a Soft 17): Inflates the edge for the house because the dealer has a little chance of improving a soft hand. 

• S17 (Stand with a Soft 17): Reduces the edge for the house in terms of player odds. 

Doubling, Split, Surrender 

• Double Down: Ability to double your bet for specific hands (generally any two, sometimes 9–11 only) can work in your direction. 

• Split: In case your two cards have equivalent value, you can split them into two hands. Rules for resplit aces, double down after a split, affect odds. 

• Surrender: Surrender early (before checking for a dealer’s blackjack) is not widespread but works in your direction when appropriately utilized. Surrender later is common; less player-favorable, but it can save loss in desperate scenarios. 

Payoff Ratios 

• 3:2 Blackjack: Traditional payout. For example, a $10 bet wins $15 for a natural blackjack. 

• 6:5 Blackjack: Common but not player-favorable. A $10 bet wins $12 for a natural blackjack, inflating the edge for the house noticeably. 

Basic Strategy 

Basic strategy is the backbone of minimizing the house edge in blackjack. It’s a mathematically derived collection of rules that informs you of the best move for any specific hand in relation to the dealer’s face-card. Remembering a whole chart can sound intimidating, but it’s a matter of practice. 

The Building Blocks of Basic Strategy 

• Hard Totals: Rules for when to stand and when to hit (e.g., stand with a hard 17 and over). 

• Soft Totals: Rules for when to use the Ace for 11 and when to use it for 1. 

• Rules for Splitting: For example, split 8s and As, but not 10s and 5s. 

• Opportunities for Doubling: In general, double with totals 9–11 when the dealer’s face-card is weak. 

Optimum use of basic strategy can drop the edge in your favor below 1%. Even a little deviation, such as not splitting 8s, can build an edge in your opponent’s direction over a long period. 

Chances of Specific Outcomes 

Knowing the odds for each move keeps you out of emotion and “gut” plays that cost you. 

Bust Chance 

• For the Player: Bust chance is determined in part by your starting total. For instance, with a starting total of 16 and a decision to hit, your chance of busting is larger in proportion to a hit with a starting total of 12 or 13. 

• For the Dealer: Bust chance for dealers varies with their face-card. Dealers bust most when dealing a 5 or 6, but less when dealing a 9, 10, or an Ace face-card. 

Chance of a Blackjack 

• In a single-deck game, your chance at a natural blackjack is about 4.83% (a little less in multi-deck games). 

• Over many hands, blackjacks will occur fairly regularly, but not enough for guaranteed wins. 

Card Counting and How It Effects Chances 

Card counting is an expert technique that entails following high-value and low-value cards yet to be taken out of the shoe: 

• Running Count: Incrments when low-value cards (2–6) appear and decrements when high-value cards (10, J, Q, K, A) appear. 

• True Count: Dividing that running count by an estimate of decks yet to be played out. That will yield a truer reading of how “rich” in high-value cards the remaining deck is. 

The larger the true count, the more likely you’ll receive blackjacks and 10-value cards, and thus, bet larger. 

Although in theory, in its best cases, card counting can tip the edge in your direction (estimated at about +1–2%), casinos have developed a range of countermeasures, including: 

• Frequent Re-Shuffle or Continuous Re-Shuffle Machines (CSMs) 

• Reduced Mid-Shoe Entries 

• Pit Boss Monitoring 

For these, and possibly additional, reasons, even in its best cases, card counting isn’t as simple as it used to be. 

Blackjacks and Black Jack Bonuses 

Standard Black Jack (3:2) 

The most player-favorable payout. Bet $10 and win a blackjack, and you’ll win $15. That proportion keeps the edge at the house down. 

Reduced Black Jack (6:5) 

A growing variation in use. Bet $10 and win a blackjack, and you’ll win $12, cutting your long-term reward down a lot. 

Side Wagers 

Popular side wagers include: 

• Insurance: Pays 2:1 when the dealer holds a blackjack, but mathematically carries a high edge and is not advisable in general, save for a talented card counter in a specific scenario 
• Perfect Pairs / 21+3 / Royal Match: High payout but high house edge, and thus, in the long run, not a wise bet.

All the side bets are also explained here at Side Bets.

Bankroll Management 

Setting Limits 

Reducing risk is accomplished through good bankroll management. One general guideline is not to bet over 1–2% of your bankroll for one hand. 

Avoid Chasing Losses 

Losing runs will occur even with perfect strategy. Chasing loss with bets growing out of control can soon destroy your bankroll. 

Discipline and Goals 

Define winning objectives and stop-loss objectives in advance and then begin to play. Once your target profit is attained, or your stop-loss level is attained, withdraw your bank. 

Online vs. Land-Based Casino Odds 

Rule Variations Online 

Online casinos have a variety of tables with alternative sets of rules for each one. Look at the pay table and rule variants (e.g., double-down restrictions, whether dealer stands with soft 17) first. 

Continuous Shuffling Machines (CSMs) in Live Casinos 

The machines shuffle at a constant rate, effectively stopping counterers of cards. In case you’re thinking about utilizing any form of advantage play, search for tables with no CSMs and with fair sets of rules. 

RNG vs. Live Dealer 

• RNG (Random Number Generator) Blackjack: Effectively shuffles with each and every deal, and thus, no opportunity for a successful counter. 

• Live Dealer Blackjack: Provides a real casino atmosphere, and in many instances, several decks, and can allow a little advantage play, but only when penetration in the deck is high enough. 

Long-Term Expected Value (EV) 

What is EV? 

Expected Value is a value for average win or loss per hand in the long run. For a 0.5% edge for a casino in a blackjack, for example, you can expect to lose $0.50 for each $100 bet, in theory, over many hands. 

Short-Term Variance 

Luck can swing wildly in a short session. You can win big, or have a run of improbable loss over a dozen hands. Over a thousand hands, results will move in a direction that’s nearer to math expectation. 

Why EV Makes a Difference 

Knowing the EV can inform your decision, and allow you to make wiser choices about tables with more positive rules, bankroll management, and have a real expectation for wins and loss. 

FAQ 

Do fewer decks always mean better odds? 

In theory, yes, single-deck games have slightly better odds for the player. However, casinos often compensate by modifying other rules (e.g., switching to 6:5 payouts or restricting doubling) that negate the advantage. 

Is card counting illegal, and does it really work? 

• Card counting is not illegal, but casinos can ban or remove you from the premises if they suspect you’re doing it. 

• It can be effective, but only if done accurately and discreetly. Modern casinos use multiple deterrents like frequent shuffling to make counting less profitable.